The forecast for the 2026/2027 farming season suggests that there is an impending drought linked to a possible El Nino development.
The forecast, however, is not a guarantee for crop failure as there are several measures that farmers can deploy to mitigate the negative impact and still have a reasonable yield.
Seasonal forecasts should be viewed as early warning signs that provide farmers with an opportunity to prepare rather than predict disaster.
One of the natural key buffers to the negative impact of El Nino in Zambia is the variation in the distribution of rainfall across the different Agriculture Ecological Zones. Records have showed that some parts of Zambia received normal rainfall even during some of the strongest El Nino events of for example the late 1990’s and between 2014 and 2016 where the country still produced an average of over 2.5 million metric tons of Maize.
To withstand the unfolding uncertainty, farmers can integrate smart climate agriculture practices in their crop planning and soil management practices. They can also align their financial strategy with the anticipated climate impact.
Some of the practical measures can include staggered planting, buying early maturing seed varieties as well as planting early to ensure crops become established before the peak of the drought.
Other smart climate agriculture practices can include minimum tillage and mulching for high moisture retention.
The anticipated drought will inevitably affect Livestock farmers due to the impact of moisture stress on the quality and availability of pasture. This will entail farmers undertaking among other things proper crop residue storage strategies.
In aligning their financial strategy with the anticipated climate impact, farmers should take up insurance as one of the key enablers to financial resilience. Insurance will not only protect the crops against drought, but also against other perils intrinsically triggered by drought exposure such as pest outbreaks.
Although the 2026/2027 El Nino induced drought forecast raises concerns, it is a good opportunity for farmers to plan adequately and ensure losses are minimized in not only their best interest but also to safeguard national food security.
By Dean Simuchimba
Agriculture Risk Specialist
Finsbury Reinsurance Company